Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming cruise missiles roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: defensive missiles deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its objective.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, destruction and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to substitute in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new approach from American administration adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration works based on a premise well known to international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House presumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does nothing to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing people and territory but avoiding a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to eliminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.
