A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
